Fed adota virtual regime de metas para a inflação
Release Date: January 25, 2012
For release at 2:00 p.m. EST
Following careful deliberations at its recent meetings, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has reached broad agreement on the following principles regarding its longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy. The Committee intends to reaffirm these principles and to make adjustments as appropriate at its annual organizational meeting each January.
The FOMC is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Committee seeks to explain its monetary policy decisions to the public as clearly as possible. Such clarity facilitates well-informed decisionmaking by households and businesses, reduces economic and financial uncertainty, increases the effectiveness of monetary policy, and enhances transparency and accountability, which are essential in a democratic society.
Inflation, employment, and long-term interest rates fluctuate over time in response to economic and financial disturbances. Moreover, monetary policy actions tend to influence economic activity and prices with a lag. Therefore, the Committee’s policy decisions reflect its longer-run goals, its medium-term outlook, and its assessments of the balance of risks, including risks to the financial system that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate. Communicating this inflation goal clearly to the public helps keep longer-term inflation expectations firmly anchored, thereby fostering price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhancing the Committee’s ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances.
The maximum level of employment is largely determined by nonmonetary factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the labor market. These factors may change over time and may not be directly measurable. Consequently, it would not be appropriate to specify a fixed goal for employment; rather, the Committee’s policy decisions must be informed by assessments of the maximum level of employment, recognizing that such assessments are necessarily uncertain and subject to revision. The Committee considers a wide range of indicators in making these assessments. Information about Committee participants’ estimates of the longer-run normal rates of output growth and unemployment is published four times per year in the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections. For example, in the most recent projections, FOMC participants’ estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment had a central tendency of 5.2 percent to 6.0 percent, roughly unchanged from last January but substantially higher than the corresponding interval several years earlier.
In setting monetary policy, the Committee seeks to mitigate deviations of inflation from its longer-run goal and deviations of employment from the Committee’s assessments of its maximum level. These objectives are generally complementary. However, under circumstances in which the Committee judges that the objectives are not complementary, it follows a balanced approach in promoting them, taking into account the magnitude of the deviations and the potentially different time horizons over which employment and inflation are projected to return to levels judged consistent with its mandate.
Porque essa fotografia de Lorena – SP fica na parte direita superior do blog?
Clica nela…
Alex,
O que você acha do Thomas Wu???
Att,
LL
Saiu no Estadão: "O documento [ata do Copom] mostra ainda que a previsão de aumento do conjunto de tarifas públicas – também conhecidas como preços administrados – foi mantida em 4% em 2012, mesmo valor considerado em novembro. Para 2013, a expectativa de reajuste desse conjunto de itens foi elevada ligeiramente, de 4,5% previstos no encontro anterior para 4,6%. Segundo o BC, essa estimativa leva em conta, "entre outras variáveis, componentes sazonais, variações cambiais, inflação de preços livres e inflação medida pelo Índice Geral de Preços (IGP)"." Qual o impacto do controle desses preços sobre as finanças das empresas e dos governos? Só assim para manter a inflação "estável" em 6% a.a.
Isso é bom, ruim ou não cheira?
"O que você acha do Thomas Wu???"
Não o conheço muito, mas li coisas boas deles e fiquei bem impressionado num seminário do BC. Parece ser muito bom.
"Isso é bom, ruim ou não cheira?"
No mínimo gera um artigo para a semana que vem… Bom, portanto.
Bernanke seguindo os passos do Arminio Fraga…
E por aqui o BC adotou o regime de metas de taxa nominal de juros, assim vai mal….
Quando parecia que o BC ia colocar um volante pra segurar o resultado, tirou um da zaga e colocou um atacante.
Maradona
Pensar que já estivemos na linha de frente desse processo, hoje andamos na contramão… mas que é mais consistente com um país de cigarras, isso não se pode negar, né não?
Ola Alex.
Acompanho o seu Blog ha mais ou menos 1 ano. Sou mestrando em finanças e tenho ultimamente me embrenhando em entender um pouco mais sobre macroeconomia, jornada da qual o blog faz parte.
Apesar de entender, e as vezes até conseguir fazer uma análise crítica dos posts, para mim ainda é um pouco dificil entender o papel da inflação no equilíbrio macroeconomico. Na verdade, sendo mais específico, por que a meta dos governos não poderia ser de inflação ZERO? Qual o risco da deflação?
Como imagino que eu não seja o único com essas dúvidas, sugiro um post abordando o assunto!!
Grato,